Sea The Stars, Frankel, Black Caviar, Camelot – Defining Greatness

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Black Caviar, Frankel , Sea the Stars, Camelot; Who’s the greatest? It shouldn’t matter

He did it. On Saturday Camelot followed in the footsteps of Sea The Stars in completing back-to-back Classics when powering away to win the Epsom Derby by five lengths eased down. Not only did he emulate the great Sea The Stars, Camelot was awarded a provisional handicap mark of 124, the equal of John Oxx’s star colt in his 2009 victory.

As 8/13 favourite Camelot was fully entitled to win in the manner he did but there is more to this story than just a great horse. Camelot is being talked of as an exceptional racehorse, who may well become the first Triple Crown winner for over 40 years if he goes for the St Leger later in the year. The powerful Coolmore operation are never shy of peddling hype around their colts with an eye on their stallion futures but whereby some of those talked of as superstars never reached the dizzying heights the hyperbole suggested, Camelot looks flawless.

Four races, three Group Ones, two Classics all in a manner as stylish and smooth as you will ever possibly see. The Racing Post demolition job last season showed his tremendous change of gear, his Guineas win showed his class and determination even with the ground against him and the jockey arguably giving him too much to do. The Derby romp proved his versatility in regards to trip and also ability to triumph despite ‘not handling’ the idiosyncratic track. There are always those that can decry the form – and it is true this season’s three-year olds are not a fantastic crop – but Camelot has proved he is one the way to becoming a ‘great’ horse.

But what does that mean? ‘Great’, ‘exceptional’, ‘brilliant’, ‘peerless’ are words thrown about carelessly all the time nowadays, no more so than in the field of sport. So much so in fact that it has broken down the barriers to what should remain adjectives for the truly magnificent. There is no shame in being very good but there is a problem when you are described as ‘great’ when in fact you just ‘better than average’, top-class maybe, but very rarely seen before, unlikely.

Yet it seems world thoroughbred flat racing is in the midst of a purple patch of incredible racehorses. It is hard to think of a previous stretch of a few years in which so many brilliant horses have raced in. Sea The Stars was lauded as a once in a lifetime horse just three years ago after his magical six Group One winning-season but the emergence of the rampant Frankel just a year later has almost eroded that plaudit. Down under the imposing mare that is Black Caviar embarrasses group rivals every time she races with a speed and nonchalance perhaps never before seen on a racetrack. Now Camelot is apparently the latest recruit to be about to be accepted into the upper echelons of racing royalty. Surely if he could pull of a quick-fire Leger/Arc double (he is ante-post favourite for both) and possibly squeeze in a win against older horses in the Eclipse or the International Stakes then he would be talked of as the greatest of the greatest?

And if Black Caviar comes over to Royal Ascot later this month and destroys the best European sprinters around as she if fully expected to do, continuing her 21 race unbeaten streak, she will certainly be talked of as the finest sprinter ever and the most successful mare of all-time? The greatest horse ever? Well if she retired unbeaten after, say, 30 starts then who knows.

Of course Timeform have practically assured us that if Frankel steps up to ten furlongs and beats a horse of the quality of So You Think or Cirrus Des Aigles by four or five lengths then it is probable Sea Bird’s 1962 performance rating of 145 will be surpassed. And that will make Frankel definitively the best of the best ever won’t it? However he could meet Camelot in one of his middle-distance targets and having to concede weight to that rival could see him being beaten and depending on the winning margin Camelot would take his crown. That is how it works yes?

But hang on a minute. Sea The Stars was never fully extended in any of his triumphs always doing as little as possible once he hit the front. He didn’t bully the opposition like Frankel, he teased them gently, giving them the impression they could catch him when in fact he always had plenty in the tank. So how can we decide who would win out of Sea The Stars, Frankel, Black Caviar and Camelot? Unless the three still in training meet at some stage and realistically only a Frankel vs. Camelot contest looks a viable outcome then we cannot. Speed figures, rating etc etc are all dependent on a range of circumstances; ground, pace of the race, the ride the horses were given.

Is the greatest horse the one that wins the most races, the most Group One races, the most prize-money, by the biggest winning margins? Do you have to be unbeaten? Sorry Sea the Stars you are out on that count. Maybe it’s about proving your versatility at at least three different trips? Unlucky Frankel you are unlikely to do that but Sea The Stars is back in the running and Camelot will certainly do the same. If Black Caviar wins a Group One race at a mile then she will have the 5, 6, 7 and 8 furlong set. Not many champions have that on their CV.

Stop though! Could Frankel’s form be anymore watertight? Without doubt those left in his wake have boosted the form so much more than the other beasts on this list. A subsequent King George winner, two Irish 2000 Guineas winners, a five-time Group One winning miler, a Prix Du Mulin winner, etc. Camelot’s form on the other hands looks moderate to say the least so far. And from our Eurocentric view how can we know the depth of Black Caviar’s achievements?

We should stop obsessing with comparisons, both historical and present, in which a range of factors make it unlikely we can ever assess with any real certainty who sits on the throne as the greatest horse of them all. Instead we should, especially those in the racing media, make an effort to stop showering horses with the sort of exaggerated praise that their performances do not deserve.

Reserve the greatest for the greatest.

Queen out to prove Newmarket was no fluke on her Homecoming in the Irish 1000 Guineas

Homecoming Queen: Filly zooms clear of the Guineas field last month and along with the colts from her stable will bid to give Aidan O’Brien a memorable Classic double/double on the weekend (Photo Getty Images)

Aidan O’Brien has had a stranglehold over the Irish Classics in recent years, winning the Irish 1000 Guineas four times in total, with three coming in the last decade and is the leading trainer in the Irish 2000 Guineas. This year he is responsible for half of the 14 runners left in Sunday’s 1000 Guineas field and his pair of Homecoming Queen and Maybe lead the betting. However, it seems unlikely Maybe, who lost her unbeaten record when favourite for the English equivalent earlier in the month, will run with most bookies having taken her out of their books. In all honestly it looks a pretty moderate affair with only three Group winners in the entire field.

Homecoming Queen was a surprise winner at Newmarket, having seemed the most exposed member of the field but produced one of the most memorable Classic performances ever when destroying a top-class looking field by nine lengths. Because of the disruption to the start of the race caused by Gray Pearl’s dreadful predicament, the fact so many brilliant fillies seemingly underperformed so badly and the way in which Homecoming Queen zoomed off in front and was never caught has left many to question what the form is actually worth. Many have labelled the daughter of Holy Roman Emperor’s victory as a ‘fluke’ but that doesn’t seem to have put off punters who have pushed her into short-price favouritism.

And in fairness if we take that run only semi-literally Homecoming Queen still looks the one to beat. The handicapper put her up to a lofty 120 after her Guineas antics which makes her the highest rated horse in the race and interestingly not even one colt in the Irish 2000 Guineas can match that rating. The form of her Newmarket win has been boosted in no uncertain terms when The Fugue, fourth in that race, bolted to the head of the Oaks betting when cruising to victory in the Musidora at York.

Starscope, who was runner-up that day wasn’t disgraced at Newbury in a Listed race on just her third career start when trying to make all over a ten furlong trip that seemed further than ideal. Laugh Out Loud, who was a massive 12 lengths behind Homecoming Queen, marked herself out as a filly with a future when looking mightily impressive in landing a gamble in a Listed contest also at the Dante meeting for the Mick Channon team. That rating looks justified and puts Homecoming Queen 8lb clear of her rivals, assuming Maybe doesn’t run, so she should be extremely hard to beat even if running 5lb below form.

Of the challengers it’s had to make a case for most of them. Kevin Prendergast’s La Collina is a Group One winner but seems to be a seven furlong filly at most, with a drop back to six looking ideal for the daughter of Strategic Prince, himself a winner at no further than seven. The remaining Aidan O’Brien quintet of After, Devotion, Soon, Ishvana and Wonderful need to show massive improvement to take a hand in this. After all they only boast five wins between them from 36 runs and Wonderful is still a maiden, albeit lightly-raced.

Dermot Weld’s Yellow Rosebud beat Devotion, Soon and a host of promising others in a decent little renewal of the Derrinstown Stud 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown last month. With more improvement probable with the benefit of a run she looks the one most likely to trouble Homecoming Queen.

Daddy Long Legs wins the UAE Derby and looks over-priced for Saturday’s Irish 2000 Guineas (Photo Oliver Clarke/Gulf News)

Last year Canford Cliffs finally proved his talent and stamina for a mile when landing the Irish 2000 Guineas, the first of his five successive Group One triumphs. This year the race appears to be lacking a superstar of Canford Cliff’s calibre but it doesn’t make it any easier in trying to pick the winner. An uneasy market at the start of the week reinforced the view that this is an open looking race.

Two of the first four home in the English 2000 Guineas, Trumpet Major and Hermival, reoppose here along with Power and Born To Sea who were both expensive flops last month. The fear with Power is that he hasn’t really trained on while people were far too easily caught up in the ‘Born To Sea, a half-brother to Sea The Stars and has the same connections = a superstar’ hype. I was very keen to take on Born To Sea at Newmarket and see John Oxx’s inmate as having a future over shorter and maybe not quite at Group One level.

Trumpet Major bolted up in the Craven Stakes and proved that wasn’t an accident with a fair fourth in the Guineas itself. A credible three and three quarters of a length behind Camelot perhaps needs upgrading as he raced on the sharp end of the pace almost the whole way and may not have been helped by having no-one racing on his inside, having landed the rail draw.

Hermival was one place ahead of Richard Hughes’s mount that day but was arguably flattered by racing on what was perceived to be the better ground on the far side. He’s a decent animal but this will be the quickest ground he has encountered and I fail to understand why he is as short as 9/2 second favourite while Trumpet Major is as big as 7s. Richard Hannon’s raids across the Irish Sea rarely return empty-handed and I expect his charge to reverse form with Hermival, if not win the race outright.

Jim Bolger is a wily old trainer and it’s his Parish Hall that came in for market support and now heads the betting as Bolger attempts an ambitious bid for Classics on successive weekends with the son of Teofilo. Last seen in winning a muddling Dewhurst, Parish Hall missed the English Guineas on account of the ground and surely the Derby is his main target. The form of that Dewhurst win is hard to access with only one and a half lengths separating the first five home. Trumpet Major and Ektihaam have since boosted the form but Power and Bronterre have done nothing for it.

Parish Hall will have to be some horse to win this race and then triumph at Epsom next week so I imagine connections will be happy if the horse just proves his wellbeing. 7/2 could be the best price ever but I am yet to be convinced he is a star.

At the prices Trumpet Major again appeals as a solid each-way option with Daddy Long Legs looking too big to ignore at a tasty looking 14/1. Presumably he was purchased with a view to an American campaign but has twice flopped badly on dirt despite being a son of Scat Daddy. His recent effort in the Kentucky Derby can be excused as he clearly doesn’t like the surface and was effectively pulled up. He is returning home and to a mile for the first time since he led home a memorable 1-2-3 for Aidan O’Brien in the Royal Lodge Stakes. That was the only time he has raced at a mile and although he since won the UAE Derby over ten furlongs I don’t seem the drop back in trip being a problem. Colm O’Donoghue gets on well with this fellow and as the highest rated horse in the field he deserves more respect than the bookies have given him.

Wrote is another O’Brien charge dropping back in distance after being a beaten favourite over ten furlongs, firstly by Daddy Long Legs in Dubai and then in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. I have never quite warmed to Wrote and a supporting role looks likely once again.

John Oxx’s Takar was an impressive maiden winner and then took a seven furlong Listed race but this is a step up in trip and class. Reply won a valuable sales race at Doncaster last season but he has been found wanting in three attempts at Group level. Foxtrot Romeo and Alkazim are surely only running in the hope of snatching some of the E300,000 prize.

Recommendations : Irish 1000 Guineas – Homecoming Queen, Irish 2000 Guineas – Trumpet Major e/w, Daddy Long Legs e/w

Ante-post Derby 2012 Preview

Main Sequence: Unbeaten colt heads to Epsom an interesting contender (Photograph Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images)

• Bonfire heats up Derby betting after victory in the Dante
• Mickdaam set to be Richard Fahey’s first Derby runner after clinching the Cheser Vase
• Astrology another feather in the cap of Aidan O’Brien’s Classic team having strolled away with the Dee Stakes
• Main Sequence will represent David Lanigan having maintained his unbeaten record in the Lingfield Derby Trial
• 2000 Guineas winner Camelot still a heavy favourite

Ironically for Bonfire, on winning the Dante Stakes at York today, the premier trial for the world’s most prestigious Classic, he gave Camelot’s form another boost. Andrew Balding’s charge had been a close-up third to French Fifteen in last year’s Criterium International (albeit suffering a troubled passage) and Camelot readily accounted for that French rival in the 2000 Guineas. With the step-up in trip sure to suit the son of Montjeu and not necessarily Bonfire, the Ballydoyle team must be very optimistic of securing their third straight Classic of the season.

Bonfire had been widely touted over the winter as a hot prospect but the poor ground meant his return to action was delayed. With time running out to get a prep-run into his horse Balding was forced to go to the Knavesmire whether he wanted to or not. The race looked an interesting little contest with Bonfire joined by Godolphin’s unbeaten colt Mandaean, wide-margin Dundalk maiden winner Ernest Hemingway, Guineas fifth Fencing and the progressive Ektihaam as well as a few interesting outsiders.

The market fluctuated widely with Bonfire a big drifter on the course as support came in for Ernest Hemingway, who was eventually sent off favourite. Unfortunately for his supporters he faded badly having set a good gallop and it was left to Ektihaam and Bonfire to dual it out up the home straight. Jimmy Fortune was always in control in repelling Ektihaam and it was a most pleasing reappearance. The pair pulled four lengths clear of Fencing and bookmakers were sufficiently impressed to cut Bonfire to around the 5-6/1 mark although Ladbrokes have stuck their necks out at 8/1.

The Dante is a good trial for the Derby but in case you forget it’s run over two furlongs shorter than the Derby trip and so can often mislead about one’s Epsom credentials. Last year Carlton House was a nice winner of the Dante and was an odds-on ante-post favourite before stamina and preparation doubts saw him pushed out a little on the day. Did he well and truly stay that day when he finished a luckless third? Who really knows but the fact Carlton House is likely to be campaigned at 10 furlongs from now on suggests connections feel he isn’t a true mile and a half horse.

And the same can be argued about Bonfire. His pedigree really doesn’t shout out ‘twelve furlong horse’. His promising sire Manduro was a three-time Group One winner between a mile and ten furlongs but only once raced over twelve, a moderate Group Two in which he won. That gives some hope to Bonfire’s fans but his dam Night Frolic only ever won once in 11 starts in a mile maiden. She was well beaten on her fifth start when trying ten furlongs and never returned to a trip longer than a mile subsequently. A strongly run Derby will certainly expose any limitations in Bonfire’s stamina and even 8/1 doesn’t really appeal.

Of the Chester trials staged recently Mickdaam and Astrology don’t look the Derby winners in-waiting and at 40/1 and 20/1 the market seems to agree. Mickdaam is a tough horse and held on by a nose to beat leading St Leger hope Model Pupil in the Vase but it would take a massive step-up to even make the frame and after nine starts it’s difficult to believe the Dubawi colt has the necessary progress in him.

The O’Brien team has such strength in depth this year that you almost get the impression the Irish maestro is running his horses in big races just to see where his stars lie in the pecking order. Camelot has been ante-post favourite since before Christmas and hardened after Guineas glory. For a horse tipped as a Triple Crown contender the Guineas was always going to be the hardest leg to win, with the emphasis on stamina in Camelot’s breeding would he have the speed for a mile? He did and in winning he made history that day becoming Montjeu’s only progeny older than two to win a Group race at a mile and Epsom looks tailor made for him.

Imperial Monarch: Another Epsom hopeful from the Ballydoyle contingent

Astrology made the most of Bonfire’s defection in the Dee Stakes to romp to an easy 11 length triumph earlier this month. The other three runners look (very) moderate in Group terms and it’s impossible to say what the form is worth. He certainly appreciated the move up in trip but he will face a very different scenario if going for the Derby. This is a race O’Brien will be desperate to win having gone ten years without a winner and he is sure to be mob-handed come June. Father Of Science was another strapping colt to win at Chester and could be a dark horse at massive odds if getting the Epsom go ahead.

One challenger that perhaps went under the radar a little was Main Sequence who took the Lingfield Derby Trial last Saturday and maintained his perfect record. Some might be prepared to treat the form lightly, perhaps because it was run on the all-weather and perhaps because the winner didn’t represent the most fashionable of connections. I believe that would be a grace mistake as it was a strong race, run at a proper tempo and without doubt better than some of the other trials that have taken place.

Shantaram is a well-liked sort from the Gosden yard and although he now hasn’t won in three starts he looks a good horse and him and Main Sequence pulled six lengths clear of the rest at Lingfield. Rougemont and Goldini are solid 100 rated benchmarks and they were well-beaten. Ed De Gas had looked a useful sort when winning his first three starts (rated 97) but he was thumped, finishing second last, 12 lengths behind Main Sequence. The overall impression I have is that David Lanigan’s star is a 115+ horse already and that isn’t far off what the principals have achieved. The 16/1 available was quickly snapped up but the 14/1 that is left looks well worth an investment. He will surely be a single-figure price on the day and any unbeaten horse warrants serious respect.

Some of you may know I am a massive fan of Imperial Monarch and have long viewed him as a Derby horse. He made a good reappearance at Sandown on poor ground and I’m hoping he will improve even more for better ground and the longer trip. Camelot will be the first string but there is more than a precedent for O’Brien’s less-fancied runners to outshine their better-fancied stable-mates. Also with Joseph O’Brien riding Camelot it is likely Ryan Moore (Derby winner in 2010), Seamie Heffernan or Colm O’Donoghue (Derby runners-up in 2011&2012) will be in the saddle and their Epsom experience could prove crucial as Joseph has only had three unsuccessful rides on the idiosyncratic Surrey track.

Another thing to note this year has been the power of the Ballydoyle euros. Imperial Monarch (9/4 into 11/8), Twirl (13/8 into 5/6) , Ernest Hemingway (4/1 into 11/4) are just a few examples of big gambles on some of the stable’s runners. True a few have gone astray but if you fancy a Ballydoyle horse for the Derby get your money on now. The 11/10 best price for Camelot is a good bet if you like him as on the day it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him odds-on when an avalanche of bets crush the layers’ resistance.

Recommendations: Main Sequence 14/1 e/w, Imperial Monarch 16/1 e/w

Ryan Moore to steal the show on Victoria Cup day at Ascot

Ryan Moore: Widely considered the best jockey riding in Britain ( Photograph: Roger Bamber/Guardian)

Ryan Moore is a notoriously hard jockey to please. Two years ago on winning the Oaks on Snow Fairy under a splendid ride, he famously muttered, when asked to explain his jubilation, ‘Well it’s not the Derby is it?’ That he went on to complete a memorable Epsom double when partnering Workforce to a fabulous victory in the season’s showpiece 24 hours later hardly brought out more than a smile.

He was in the headlines again last weekend when he piloted Homecoming Queen to a glorious nine-length romp in the 1000 Guineas, giving Moore his first Guineas win. Yet it was rather apparent that the three-time champion jockey would rather have been anywhere else than under the spotlight on the podium for the presentation trophy. While Moore may be criticised for his unfriendly media image that should take nothing away from his talents in the saddle.

Having lost their Sagaro Stakes card to Kempton earlier in the month because of the poor weather which continues to plague British racing at the moment, Ascot will be desperate to put on a good show for tomorrow’s lucrative Victoria Cup card. And Moore may find himself with the eyes of the racing world upon him once more as I will be disappointed if he doesn’t go home to Newmarket without at least a treble. Ever since Frankie Dettori landed that magnificent bookie-busting seven-timer way back in 1996 punters have dreamed of a similar scenario and many a weekend punt consists of multiples on a particular jock’s rides. And on Ascot’s eight race card Moore appears to have leading chances on at least five of his mounts.

In the opening maiden it will be disappointing if Sir Maximillian cannot get off the mark at the third attempt. Ed Dunlop’s charge moved well in heavy ground last time out to finish second and with conditions slightly easier is a confident choice to get favourite backers off to the best possible start. Most of those with previous experience look exposed or limited but Miss Noble is a conceivable danger having looked a different proposition on the all-weather two weeks ago.

The Listed race that follows has only five runners and with one them being a 74-rated handicapper it looks just to concern the four. John Gosden’s Aiken has been extremely progressive winning his last four starts including a heavy ground handicap on his reappearance. He boasts a course and distance win and surely is the NAP of the day to give Moore a quick-fire double. Dawn Twister owes his 105 rating to credible efforts in German Group company last term and made a winning debut for his new stable but this is an entirely different proposition.

The 2.50 fillies handicap looks extremely competitive with at least half the 12 runners holding fair claims. Moone’s My Name will be a popular choice having made an impressive reappearance at Windsor last month and with the Ralph Beckett team continuing to go well deserves her place at the head of the market. The Queen’s runner Free Verse looks the first string of the Richard Hannon duo and is bred to be suited by this mile trip but her form is muddling and I would rather see her run than back her first time out. Moore’s ride Shesastar has been racing mainly at sprint trips but her running style suggests she is worth a crack at this trip. The David Barron stable isn’t in great form but it would be no surprise for her to go well at a price.

Big-field handicaps have become such a signature feature of the flat season and few are more competitive than the annual cavalry charge that is the Victoria Cup. 24 horses firing over a straight seven furlongs is quite a sight. Last year’s winner Hawkeyethenoo returns off a seven pound higher mark as he bids for back-to-back glory but after winning this in grand style he suffered from setbacks and has only been seen thrice more where he’s been disappointing. Jim Goldie’s beast can go well fresh but even with the services of jump-jock-gone-flat Graham Lee in the reins, it would take a monster effort to win.

Hawkeyenoo streaks to victory under Gary Bartley in last year’s Victoria Cup. Can the gelding repeat the success?

Tariq Too made an impressive start for his new yard and currently heads the market and he is clearly something of a seven furlong specialist with all four career wins coming over this intermediate trip. On Racing Post ratings he is one of the highest-rated and with the ground in his favour he could easily give Amy Weaver a notable success. It hasn’t been a bad race for market principals in the last decade but in such a big field I’m looking for one at a double-figure price.

Ryan Moore won this race in 2006 on Partners in Jazz and again has a genuine candidate for glory in the shape of David Elsworth’s mare Bonnie Brae. Nearly all her form is over the Victoria Cup trip and on softish ground so neither of these factors will be a problem. She has no great record fresh but we should assume she has been laid out with this race in mind and the form of her last race (in which she won) has worked out well. The second, Docofthebay,  won a Listed race next time up while further back in the field Captain Bertie was an unlucky in-running fourth in the Spring Mile this year before winning the Spring Cup at Newbury.

Furthermore Ryan Moore has a 100% success rate on Bonnie Brae with one win from one ride and as a trainer/jockey combo Elsworth and Moore have a very healthy 26% strike-rate over the last five years. At around the 12/1 mark I would be hopeful of a decent run for your money and with most firms paying five places Bonnie Brae is a nice each-way selection to include in the big Saturday ‘Moore Multiple’.

I can also spy more potential winners for Moore in the next two races where he teams up with champion trainer Richard Hannon on Janoub Nibras in the maiden sprint and then the unbeaten Mon Ami Julie in the 16.35 six-furlong handicap. Janoub Nibras was an expensive purchase related to a host of winners and from the family of French wonder-mare Goldikova. A couple of fancy entries imply he should be able to make an impact on the racecourse and the son of Acclamation should pick up the pieces if likely favourite Hototo disappoints.

Mon Ami Julie has raced solely on the all-weather where he made it two from two last month. Despite a pedigree for further he has taken well to sprinting and still looks well handicapped off 75. He has to prove his effectiveness on turf but in a race devoid of progressive looking horses Mon Ami Julie should have more to give.

In the last two contests both Kylladie and Dragonera have live chances in interesting races. Peace Seeker arrives looking for a four-timer but lacks the race fitness of some of the others in the 17.10. The concluding race features very smart hurdler Grumeti making a return to the flat in what is a very tricky heat. Local Hero was a narrow beaten favourite at Newmarket last weekend and bids for compensation but Dragonera boasts the highest rating aside from the German import Steuben who will surely find easier races in time. With two good hurdlers in the mix Dragonera is likely to go off at a bigger price than she should for a yard in good form and as we shall be hoping Moore is riding high on a crest of confidence following an unbelievable seven-timer, he can get her to the front and complete a perfect eight!

The Bank Holiday Weekend Reflection: Five things that caught the eye

Camelot and Joseph O’Brien on their way to post before Guineas glory (Picture McGowan Racing)

1. Did Camelot match the hype in the 2000 Guineas?

Heading the ante-post market for the 2000 Guineas and the Derby since winning the Racing Post Trophy in such fine style last season, Aidan O’Brien’s Camelot went to Newmarket on Saturday with trends against him and layers ready to take him on.

In the end the 15/8 favourite proved himself well up to the task, coming from the rear of the field and escaping a difficult looking passage to find more under rookie jockey Joseph O’Brien and repel the French challengers.

It certainly wasn’t a performance in the visual league of his Doncaster victory and my first thoughts on the race were that it wasn’t a very strong looking field. French Fifteen, beaten just a neck, was put up here by McGowan Racing as a great each-way bet for the race but drifted out to as big as 18/1 on-course. He challenged all the way to the line but just seemed to get outstayed by Camelot. The third home, another French raider Hermival, ran a cracker seeing as he was drawn on the ‘wrong’ side of the track but he was only beaten two and a half lengths and hardly looks a world-beater although he is relatively unexposed.

Other fancied runners like Abtaal, Born To Sea, Power and Top Offer were all very disappointing so it is hard to make the case Camelot was a great winner of the race; certainly he didn’t win in the style of recent greats like Sea the Stars and Frankel. Not that that will bother the Ballydoyle team who now have the only winner of a three-year old Group race over a mile sired by Montjeu in their ranks. A massive stallion fee should be assured and he was always going to make a better middle-distance performer.

Quotes as low as 4/5 for the Derby may seem short but the Guineas was always going to be the hardest race for Camelot to win in his quest for Classic glory. The foundations are definitely laid but Camelot still has much to prove to match some of the superlatives that have been thrown around.

2. Homecoming Queen puts up a monstrous performance to take the 1000 Guineas

Barely 24 hours later Aidan O’Brien was celebrating his second Guineas double but not with the filly most expected. Having saddled more than 50 runners in British Classics since he last won one in 2008 (Henrythenavigator/2000 Guineas) the weekend success he enjoyed will have been a welcome relief to the Irish trainer and the Coolmore operation. Yet surely the way in which Homecoming Queen bounded away from the field would have astonished them all.

Firstly the tragedy that struck Gray Pearl in the starting stalls deserves more than just a passing mention. It’s not uncommon for inexperienced horses to get restless in the stalls and Gray Pearl did what many uncomfortable horses do in that situation, try and get out. It’s unclear exactly how she did it but Gray Pearl damaged her spinal cord trying to get under the front gate and tragically for such a promising young filly and her connections she had to be put down.

It can be argued that a delay of 25 minutes severely impacted on the result of the race and many will be tempted to dismiss the form entirely. Most of the field were in the stalls before having to be unloaded while Gray Pearl was treated. Mentally and physically that will affect a horse, who has geared itself up to race with the adrenalin pumping only to be pulled out without doing what it thought it was going to do.

Those who doubt it has an affect might be interested to know that the first two home in the race had not been loaded when Gray Pearl was removed. In addition it was a cold, miserable day at Newmarket on Sunday and the Rowley course is exposed. Keeping muscles warm and the horses in fine spirits will be hard to do while some horses seemingly just decided they weren’t in the mood at all.

Not that those events should take the gloss of a phenomenal winning performance from O’Brien’s second string Homecoming Queen, coming a ridiculous 9 lengths clear of the second Starscope and the hot favourite Maybe.

When a 25/1 pretty exposed sort, apparently in the race as a pacemaker, makes all in a big race it’s tempting to say they ‘stole the race’ and decry the form as false. However when the ‘pacemaker’ sets a very solid pace (the time was two seconds quicker than the colts’ equivalent) and then stretches away so impressively the ‘stealing’ argument surely cannot be applied. Well done to the daughter of Holy Roman Emperor and rider Ryan Moore for a very memorable performance.

Major disappointments were the unbeaten trio of Ralph Beckett’s Moonstone Magic and the Godolphin pair Discourse and Lyric Of light who filled the last three places. Physically Moonstone Magic is huge and although unraced at two she had made a major impression when bolting up on debut and then in the Fred Darling Stakes. She should have been at home on the ground but perhaps three races in three weeks was too much.

The Godolphin pair just didn’t look fit and were both tailed off. The lightly-raced John Gosden pair of Starscope and The Fugue deserve a mention for outrunning their big odds and will win races. Maybe didn’t lose anything except her unbeaten record in defeat and remains a top prospect.

3. Noble Mission versus Born To Sea

Brothers and sport just don’t mix. Being related just means you will be compared and there will always be a sibling rated as superior to the other. Gary Neville and Phil Neville, Andy Murray and Jamie Murray, Wayne Rooney and … erm [Insert Name] Rooney are just a few to come to mind.

On Saturday two brothers to two of the best racehorses in history were on show at Newmarket but there were very different outcomes. Frankel’s brother Noble Mission had shown a lot of talent on the gallops before he made his debut in a Yarmouth maiden but trainer Sir Henry Cecil had warned us he wasn’t the polished article yet. He still finished a pleasing second in his maiden and then comfortably won on his reappearance this term at Newbury. He was taking a big step up in class and in trip on Saturday in the one mile two furlong Listed race, the Qatar Newmarket Stakes.

Born To Sea is a half-brother to Sea The Stars who won a Classic double in his record-breaking 2010 season. In the colours of the same owner and trained by the same trainer, John Oxx, it is inevitable comparisons were going to be made.

When Born To Sea took a Listed race on his two-year old debut as favourite many people bracketed the Invincible Spirit colt up there with his famous brother and although he was a beaten favourite on his next start he was found to be lame. He remained the general second favourite for the Guineas for months before support came in for a couple of others.

Born To Sea eventually went off the 10/1 fourth favourite on Saturday and finished well beaten in 12th. In doing so he lived up to McGowan Racing’s prophecy that he was a bookies horse. His form was worth little and he should have been at least twice that price. As a son of a sprinter (Sea The Stars was sired by Cape Cross, an established miler) eight furlongs on poor ground was never going to be ideal for Johnny Murtagh’s mount and it will interesting to see what they do with him next.

On the other hand Noble Mission proved himself a fine horse in his own right when he beat a small but useful field to gain his first black-type win. The Galileo colt deserves his performance to be upgraded as the race turned into a sprint and Noble Mission was boxed in behind horses for the best part of a furlong before Tom Queally could extract him into daylight where he willingly ran on.

Quite whether he is good enough to win the Derby is another question for another day but he is a lovely three-year old to have in the yard.

4. Mike Smith’s big-race errors are tarnishing his reputation as one of the best jockeys in the business

Over the pond at Churchill Downs one of America’s greatest races, the Kentucky Derby, took place in front of a record 165,0307 spectator crowd. It looked a strong field but the lightly-raced Bodemeister was a warm favourite despite trying to be the first colt to win the race having not run as a two-year old since 1892.

And he should have won without a shadow of doubt. Jockey Mike Smith set suicidal fractions in his bid to make all and it was obvious to many that there was no way the horse could sustain such a run. For such an experienced big-race jockey it was a shocking error of judgement.

The presence of a well-known front-running sprinter Trinniberg should have made it clear to Smith that there would certainly be pace in the race but even Trinniberg couldn’t maintain such a furious gallop. Rather predictably Bodemeister was worn down late on by I’ll Have Another who was being ridden by the relatively unknown Mario Gutierrez having his first Derby ride.

Mike Smith famously broke down in the press conference at the Breeders’ Cup in 2010 after his poor ride cost wonder-mare Zenyatta a 20 race unbeaten record. Another error of judgement such as that displayed on Saturday night will surely put an end to his association with the biggest names in the biggest races.

5. A host of formerly frustrating three-year olds are back as very promising looking four-year olds

Al Kazeem passes the winning post in splendid isolation to land the Jockey Club Stakes (Picture McGowan Racing)

Al Kazeem – Has always had bundles of talent and consistency to match but at times didn’t look straightforward last season when he appeared a bit one-paced at the business end of races. That form though, runner-up behind the likes of Sea Moon, Beaten Up and Green Destiny, is strong and a powerful Al Kazeem returned to the track on Saturday to blitz a very high-class field in the Jockey Club Stakes. He will surely make his mark for Roger Charlton in some big races this term.

Mayson – Horses that place a lot more often than they win are the worst sort for punters and last year Mayson failed to add to his two juvenile victories in five races. However the Richard Fahey-trained sprinter has begun this year in sparkling form following up a Listed win over six furlongs with the Palace House Stakes over five. With the sprinting ranks depleted through the retirement of Dream Ahead and the injury to Deacon Blues, Mayson could emerge as a worthwhile replacement.

Farhh – Frustrating in the sense that this son of Pivotal had been restricted to just two career starts in two years he overcame another long absence to run off with the Hunt Cup at Thirsk in the manner of a true ‘Group horse in a handicap’ on Saturday. Unbeaten in three he has Group One entries and looks an exciting prospect.

Izzi Top – John Gosden’s filly was decent last year, winning a Listed race, a Group 3 and finishing third in the Oaks, but connections didn’t seem to know what trip was her absolute optimum and she still ran green at times. But with an extra winter on her back she was another to impress at Newmarket on Sunday, conceding weight to fine rivals but still outclassing them. She could be very, very good.

QIPCO 2000 Guineas day at Newmarket gallery

Copyright McGowan Racing

QIPCO 2000 Guineas Preview: Play the French Trumpet

Guineas fancies: Trumpet Major & French Fifteen and current favourite Camelot

It seems like only yesterday that Frankel produced a staggering performance to claim the 2011 renewal of the 2000 Guineas but after a thrilling National Hunt season the flat’s first Classic is already upon us.

And it is fair to say Saturday’s race is a real conundrum. The whole contest seems to revolve around one horse, Camelot. Aidan O’Brien’s unbeaten colt has headed the market ever since a scintillating performance in the Racing Post Trophy last year and has only hardened as genuine contenders for the race look thin on the ground.

However at evens in some places he makes no appeal whatsoever from a price perspective and I imagine he will drift slightly on the day as layers look to take him on. At such a short price he effectively takes out around 50% of the market and therefore there is certainly ‘value’ to be found by ignoring the favourite. Furthermore there are many good reasons to take Camelot on. While the comparisons with St Nicholas Abbey are starting to get tiresome there are clear similarities.

For a brilliant article about Camelot read Kevin Blake’s piece for the Irish Field http://www.theirishfield.ie/site/article.php?id=1822&cid=5 where he reveals some startling statistics about Montjeu’s sire success at a mile. I am not advising readers to lay Camelot, he could be very special, but at such a short price it’s easy to look elsewhere for the reasons briefly outlined below;

§ From Kevin Blake, ‘Montjeu has sired over 150 horses that have been officially rated 100 or higher. Yet, of all those talented horses, not a single one of them has won a Group race at a mile or shorter as a three-year-old or older in Europe. Indeed, just a handful of them have won at Listed level within that criteria, with one of those being, interestingly enough, Hurricane Fly’ (who also broke the stat that ‘Montjeu had never sired a winner at the Cheltenham Festival.

§ The Racing Post Trophy is a decent Classic trial, just for the wrong Classic. No winner of the Doncaster showpiece has won the Guineas since High Top in 1971. In comparison four winners have gone to Epsom and won the Derby since 1986.

§ The last couple of years have seen horses that have had a prep run fill all the places. As young horses there really is no substitute for experience, no matter how much modern training methods mean a horse can be delivered to the course ‘match-fit’. From two years to three years is a massively important stage for a horse both physically and mentally. So many prodigious juveniles haven’t trained on over the years so it is always nice to see some confirmation that a horse has wintered well.

§ Aidan O’Brien is undergoing something of a British Classic mini-drought having last saddled Henrythenavigator to glory back in 2008. That is despite sending a wide array of fancied runners out. O’Brien admitted to mistakes in the training of St Nicholas Abbey, pushing the horse too far at such an early part of the season and Camelot probably has the Derby as his biggest target. Connections have probably seen the apparent lack of depth on Saturday and decided they have nothing to lose by letting him take his chance.

§ Although visually Camelot has been extremely impressive his form amounts to little. The Racing Post Trophy he won was a substandard, small-field renewal against Group 3 standard opponents at best and only one of the four rivals he smashed in his maiden have gone on to win any sort of race; a weak all-weather maiden at Wolverhampton. It is also easy to look fast against moderate rivals. A true test in a big field will be a totally different challenge altogether.

§ The ground. Jockey Joseph O’Brien has already mentioned the fact the softish ground may be an issue for the horse and it’s certainly apparent he will be a better horse on better ground. He may well get away with the cut in the turf but at evens is it really worth finding out? Indeed there are many horses in the race proven on soft going and surely make more punting sense than getting caught up in the Ballydoyle hype machine.

Not only is Camelot a prohibitive price with so many doubts to overcome but several of those behind him are at silly prices. Unsurprisingly Top Offer has begun to drift a few points with some firms, although he still at 9s with Ladbrokes. It was ludicrous to see a once-raced maiden winner priced up as a 6/1 shot a week or two ago for one of the season’s biggest Group 1’s. Yes Top Offer made a very encouraging debut last term, pulling away easily from a big field yet that form has not been tested at all. The first two behind him that day have yet to win a race and it would take a really special horse to step up from winning a maiden to winning a Classic. The fact he missed his prep run through a mixture of concerns over the ground and that trainer Roger Charlton didn’t want to give him a hard race before the Guineas doesn’t bode well either.

Born To Sea was always going to attract attention being a half-brother to the legendary Sea The Stars and the fact he went off favourite in a Listed race on his debut shows the regard trainer John Oxx holds him in. He was found lame after somewhat surprisingly being beaten by Nephrite in a Group 3 and as many people’s dark horse for the Guineas it was disappointing to see Nephrite beaten at the Curragh last month. However, Born To Sea only has two horses in the race below him on the official ratings and although he is certainly capable of better, he will have to have improved massively from last season and being a son of Invincible Spirit the trip must be a big question mark.

I will stick my neck out here and say he is a great example of a bookies horse, hyped up by both the press and the layers making it look like 8/1 is a good price when in reality he should be at least 20/1.

And as with every big race there is always some horses just running in the hope of picking up some prize-money. The likes of Saigon, Boomerang Bob, Redact and Ptolemaic all look outclassed while Talwar, Red Duke, Coupe De Ville and Hermival will have to step up markedly on that they have shown so far. I can’t see the admirable Caspar Netscher getting the trip in soft ground while the vibes around Power, who is unlucky not to be an unbeaten horse after six runs, aren’t great and is reflected in his big price.

So the three horses I think are interesting are Trumpet Major and the two top-rated French challengers, Abtaal and French Fifteen. Trumpet Major is one of the most exposed horses in the field having had nine races already but he has a lot going for him. For a start he is trained by the champion trainer Richard Hannon who has lifted this prize three times. He has also saddled the runner-up in the last two years and his subsequent top-class miler Canford Cliffs was third in the race in 2010. On official ratings Trumpet Major is the third highest-rated in the field on 116 and second on Racing Post ratings.

Moreover he bolted up in the Craven Stakes last month on his first attempt at the mile trip, pulling five lengths clear on ground he wasn’t expected to relish. It wasn’t a particularly strong trial and the last Craven winner to follow up in the Guineas was Haafhd in 2004 but Trumpet Major has clearly strengthened up over the winter. He is also the only colt, along with stablemate Coupe De Ville, who can boast a course victory, something very important to consider when examining Newmarket’s tricky Rowley course.

As the mount of Richard Hughes we can assume he is the stable first string and although 9/1 is still probably only a fair price it appeals as an each-way bet.

French horses travelling to England are often ignored by punters as Mafki’s 33/1 victory in the Guineas in 2010 showed. He was an unbeaten colt who had had comfortably won a recognised trial the month before but wasn’t given a hope by anyone. This year the two main French challengers haven’t been missed with Abtaal a general second-favourite and French Fifteen around 10/1. Yet you could still make the argument that if both horses were trained in England they would be shorter still.

Abtaal and French Fifteen have raced each other twice before and the head-to-head is 1-1 yet you could argue Abtall should have won both encounters. He is usually a front-runner but in the Prix Djebel trial he was held up and then only just failed to catch French Fifteen. But it is hard to make all in a big field at Newmarket unless you are called Frankel and I think Abtaal will be vulnerable to a closer.

Therefore at the prices I would rather take a chance on French Fifteen who has a career record of six from eight (experience which will help his chances), is proven on the ground, will be ridden by top Guineas-winning jockey Olivier Peslier and on ratings has very little to find.

Tote Ten To Follow Competition 2012 Entries Part 2

Swedish Sailor: could be anything (Photo Press Association)

CIRRUS DES AIGLES – This 6-year old French superstar has racked up 41 races so far in his career winning 14 of them and placing in another 21. Last season alone he ran in 11 Group races, securing his first Group 1 at the umpteenth attempt with a brilliant victory over So You Think on Ascot’s Champions Day.

He has just returned from Meydan where he took the Sheema Classic from Breeders’ Cup Turf winner St Nicholas Abbey in gritty fashion. As the highest-rated middle-distance performer in Europe last season he deserves immense respect and seems to be improving for age and racing. Unfortunately as a gelding we will never see him in the Arc but as such there are no concerns over damaging his stud value; he has none.

MAYBE – Five from five, four of them black-type races, Maybe looked a cut above the juvenile fillies last year. Another O’Brien inmate out of Galileo she is yet to race over further than seven furlongs but the way she finishes off her races suggests she will love the move up in trip.

She is a short price for what looks like a fascinating 1000 Guineas renewal but even if she does come unstuck she will surely mop up some top events on both sides of the Irish Sea.

WADING – If breeding alone won races then Wading would be a champion already. By Montjeu, closely related to Sea The Stars, a half-sister to Galileo and Black Sam Bellamy among others, Wading boasts an impeccable pedigree.

Campaigned solely over seven furlongs so far she is two from three including a very impressive win in the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket last time. She will be crying out for a step up in trip this season and has obvious Classic chances. Godolphin’s Mahmood Al Zarooni has an enviable hand of fillies to go to war with this season but he might just find O’Brien’s Wading spoiling the party.

IMPERIAL MONARCH – A beautifully-bred individual by the super-sire Galileo, Imperial Monarch made an impressive debut when streaking clear of 18 rivals at the Curragh last year. That marked him out as a nice horse but with the strength in the juvenile ranks at Ballydoyle, with the likes of Maybe and Camelot hogging the headlines, Imperial Monarch went slightly under the radar.

Racing at Sandown on Saturday in the ten furlong Classic Trial he was given a brilliant or dodgy (make your on mind up) ride by Joseph O’Brien but got the job done well in the end. The ‘bottomless’ ground was a major disadvantage for two of the other runners who hardly look world-beater’s anyhow but the second horse looks a fair prospect and with further progress likely Imperial Monarch looks like he will relish the Derby trip for which he is a general 20/1 shot now.

SWEDISH SAILOR – The wildcard of my Ten To Follow this year, Swedish Sailor is the least exposed of all my choices having only run the once in stylishly winning what is traditionally a decent Yarmouth maiden.

He was a popular choice with punters going off the 7/2 favourite that day in a strong looking 15 runner affair with all the top yards represented. Frankie Dettori sent the Sailor into an early lead and he only needed to be pushed out to record an easy five length victory. In behind was Noble Mission, a full-brother to the remarkable Frankel, and he has already boosted the form, comfortably winning a Newbury maiden last week by three lengths.

Swedish Sailor is not entered in the Guineas and it is believed Mandaean is Godolphin’s main Derby hope having been brought over from France after winning a Group 1, but Swedish Sailor could be anything and is chanced as a selection this time. The stamina in his pedigree suggests he could be a Leger candidate.

Tote Ten To Follow Competition 2012 Entries Part 1

Last year’s McGowan Racing’s Ten to Follow were:

• FRANKEL
• GOLDIKOVA
• HOORAY
• RIMTH
• SO  YOU THINK
• CANFORD  CLIFFS
• FAME AND GLORY
• SNOW FAIRY
• DREAM AHEAD
• CAPE BLANCO

As one can see only Rimth was a real disappointment. She had looked a class act when winning on her seasonal reappearance in a decent race but ultimately was found wanting at the highest level. Injury setbacks to Snow Fairy meant she missed several engagements but she did well to place in big races in britain, Ireland and France. Sadly both Cape Blanco and Canford Cliffs suffered injuries after some excellent efforts and were retired.

French wonder-mare Goldikova may have felt the affects of age but still ran gallantly picking up lots of points. Dream Ahead proved a revelation dropped back to sprinting and ended his career unbeaten over six furlongs.

Frankel as we all know was the superstar of the season and won the most points last year. Hooray didn’t seem to train on as a three-year old which was a shame as she looked a real speedball at two. Australian import So You Think was not the superstar we all hoped he would be but was a points machine.

While last year I concentrated on mainly the older, more established stars as a tactic to picking up points, this year I am including more three-year olds on the path to (hopeful) glory.

They are;

FRANKEL – Impossible not to include the latest candidate for the title of the world’s best ever racehorse. Officially the highest-rated thoroughbred on the planet he is unbeaten in all nine starts including five Group 1’s. The probable step up in trip he is likely to take should bring out further improvement from the son of Galileo and it is hard to see him being beaten this year.

EXCELEBRATION – A strong contender for the unluckiest horse of last season after running into Frankel three times but he also romped to victory in the German Guineas and the Hungerford Stakes. He proved himself a Group 1 horse in his own right when scoring in Franceand made a pleasing debut for his new connections on Sunday, readily winning a Group 3. He is likely to be Ballydoyle’s main older miler and with Frankel probably moving up in trip Excelebration should be able to take full advantage.

DABIRSIM – Probably France’s most exciting young colt in a country with plenty of unexposed talent in their three-year old ranks. He had a flawless juvenile campaign winning all five races including a brace of Group 1’s under Frankie Dettori. He was surprisingly beaten at 4/7 on his seasonal reappearance this month by the very capable Dragon Pulse. It wasn’t Christophe Soumillon’s finest ride, really over-doing the confidence in the saddle and just getting caught on the line. The joint top-rated champion two-year old colt last season has an explosive turn of foot and deserves the chance to show he is France’s best hope for the season. Whether he goes for the French Guineas or is dropped back in trip he should clean up in the top French events, while it would be no surprise to see him lining up at Royal Ascot in the Golden Jubilee.

CAMELOT – St Nicholas Abbey Mark ΙΙ? What does his form amount to? Can Montjeu sire a Classic winner at a mile? These questions and more have all been asked as punters and pundits argue over whether Camelot really is the second coming. Now as short as evens for the opening Classic of the season (despite no firm committal from Aidan O’Brien that he will even line-up) it’s a real question of style over substance.

No-one can argue he has been visually stunning in his two races so far but it’s fair to say the form doesn’t look strong enough at this stage to merit such short odds for Newmarket. Nonetheless he is held in the highest regard by connections and whether or not he runs in the Guineas or not he looks the most realistic prospect for the Derby and then would have a whole range of options over middle-distances.

JUKEBOX JURY – Every Ten To Follow entry needs a decent stayer in their list and Jukebox Jury has the ability to be Europe’s champion stayer. Last year Fame And Glory did us proud and is sure to be a popular choice among entrants. However he showed on more than one occasion last season that he may be falling out of love with the game and it is a little surprising Ballydoyle are racing him again at the age of six and with career earnings of over £2million to his name.

Jukebox Jury is a dual Group 1 winner and was quietly fancied for the Melbourne Cup but sadly suffered a bad injury during the race. Assuming he is brought back in good shape by trainer Mark Johnston, this well-travelled horse should be able to stay his way to the top.

The Aintree Reflection: Five things that caught the eye

Neptune Collonges: The popular grey gets up on the line to deny Sunnyhillboy by a nose at 33/1 : Photo  Tom Jenkins for the Observer

1. Performance of the meeting

There are many candidates for this award who are mentioned below including a certain duo from the Henderson yard who followed up their Cheltenham Festival wins with two further emphatic performances. Then there was the Yorkshire handler who saw his best handicappers follow up their victories last month at Prestbury Park off top-weight in two very competitive races.

But for me the best performance came from Edgardo Sol who turned the Red Rum Handicap Chase into a procession. Yes it wasn’t the most competitive race but the manner in which Ruby Walsh’s mount eased clear was very impressive.

Having broke his maiden over course and distance in a chase last October, Edgardo Sol had been kept to hurdles for his last five runs. Although he won one race and was unlucky not to win the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last month it had been a largely disappointing campaign. But he clearly relished the return to fences and might contest the Scottish Champion Hurdle now before a crack at Grade 1 company at Punchestown will be considered.

2. Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre are serious horses

We all know about Sprinter Scare now and the fact he was 1/7 to continue his unbeaten run over fences shows there is no hiding his talent from the bookies. Once again he was phenomenal in the Maghull Novices’, jumping perfectly and cantering clear when asked by Barry Geraghty.

At just six it’s scary to think how good he could be. With Sizing Europe and Big Zeb getting older and Master Minded currently injured the two-mile division is in desperate need of a star and in Sprinter Sacre the Nicky Henderson team has a superstar.

Simonsig was one of the most impressive winners at the Cheltenham Festival in the Neptune and was odds-on to follow up at Aintree on Saturday. He couldn’t have done it any easier, always travelling the best and although he was pretty much left clear two out he galloped on unextended for a 15 length romp. He is now five from six under rules and Cotton Mill, the horse giving chase to Simonsig in the Neptune before running out, boosted the form to a degree finishing third in the Sefton Novices’ over a trip that stretched his stamina. Fingal Bay, the only horse to have beaten Simonsig over hurdles was only second in that race but perhaps paid the price for being ridden so positively.

Both Simonsig and Fingal Bay have exciting futures as chasers next season but connections might be tempted to keep Simonsig over hurdles and have a crack at Big Buck’s next season.

3. Menorah finally gets his moment in the sun

He was the high-class hurdler whose career as a chaser had largely been a disappointment. His jumping had been littered with mistakes and his copybook had been blotted by an unseating and a fall but on Friday Menorah finally got it right and landed his first Grade One over fences and the second of his career.

The Manifesto Novices’ Chase wasn’t a strong affair in terms of quality and quantity and the favourite Al Ferof again disappointed. The Nicholls charge is starting to look a bit exposed over fences now. An impressive chase debut was followed by  Al Ferof just holding off For Non Stop who has done little to frank the form since.

A good run at Ascot behind Somersby and subsequent Champion chase winner Finian’s Rainbow suggested he had a strong future over further than two miles. But a jarring error at Cheltenham put paid to any attempt of exposing any stamina limitations Sprinter Sacre had.

Upped in trip at Aintree he ran flat and was a very-well beaten third. It is interesting to see what route connections take with him. Menorah though will have had his confidence boosted and it is no surprise to see connections plotting to strike again this season while the iron is hot.

4. Malcolm Jefferson – training performance of the year?

Malcolm Jefferson took two horses to the Cheltenham Festival and took three horses to the Aintree meeting. At Cheltenham both Attaglance and Cape Tribulation were victorious giving the Yorkshire trainer a memorable handicap double.

Running with penalties, which meant the same two horses were running at Aintree off top-weight in fiercely competitive 20-odd runner handicaps made it seem unlikely, especially considering their exertions of a few weeks ago, that the two runners could win again. But win they did in fine style to complete a remarkable festival double-double for Jefferson. If a punter had a pound accumulator on those four results you would be looking at a £70875 return.

Sadly Jefferson’s Grand National runner, the live outsider According to Pete was brought down at the second Bechers and suffered a fatal injury.

5. Paul Nicholls finally lands the Grand National

With an audience of over 10million people in the UK alone and after the controversy of last year it was no surprise to see many people scrutinising the National for any sign of animal cruelty. Tragically two horses died including arguably this season’s best chaser, Gold Cup hero Synchronised and the aforementioned According To Pete. Predictably this has attracted those calling for more safety changes to the ‘world’s greatest steeplechase’.

It is horrific that those horses died but without fundamentally changing the race the risks are always going to be there. In the aftermath of seeing his horse die Malcolm Jefferson suggested bigger fences would actually help, slowing down the horses and giving them time to measure the fences. Whether or not that is the case I’m not convinced but I believe having a much bigger run up to the first fence  would allow the field to sort itself out and give the jockeys time to settle their mounts before taking the first.

Synchronised’s antics before the race gave activists the chance to slam organisers for letting the horse take his chance. He was clearly spooked and although unlikely to have used much energy when he broke free, it is questionable whether if he hadn’t been the favourite organisers would have been so keen to let him run. Even so it is grossly offensive for people to suggest horses are put down after an injury because they are no longer financially viable. Rhetoric like that is terrible misinformed about the reality of a horse breaking a leg where the only humane option is to put them to sleep.

As for the race itself it not only provided a thrilling finish but gave Paul Nicholls his elusive first win in the race and effectively sealed the trainer’s title in his favour. The handicap has changed in recent years giving better horses a better chance and while it used to be no horse could realistically win carrying 11 stone or more, the last three winners have all carried 11 stone or more.

Neptune Collonges has been a fantastic servant for connections and has now landed over a million pounds in prize-money. The popular grey gave everything to just reel in Sunnyhillboy on the line to give pilot Daryl Jacob his finest win in the saddle in a phenomenal time.

Also a special mention should go to Katie Walsh who had seen her mount, trained by her father Ted, perhaps surprisingly backed into to 8/1  joint-favouritism from as big as 25/1 the night before. Hunting an eight-timer Seabass was given a great ride up at the front away from danger but just couldn’t find a finishing kick, finishing a highly credible five length third.